{"schema":"wetter.kaipfstr.de/ortsbilanz/1","berechnet_utc":"2026-11-03T01:43:50Z","quelle":{"schnappschussdateien_gesamt":370,"ausgabetage_gewertet":66,"ausgabetage_von":"2026-07-18","ausgabetage_bis":"2026-11-01","luecken":[{"von":"2026-08-11","bis":"2026-08-18","tage":8},{"von":"2026-08-22","bis":"2026-09-07","tage":17},{"von":"2026-09-29","bis":"2026-09-30","tage":2},{"von":"2026-10-18","bis":"2026-10-31","tage":14}],"schnappschussdateien_unlesbar":0,"spaete_laeufe":[{"ausgabetag":"2026-07-18","generated_utc":"2026-07-18T09:25Z","ortszeit":"11:25","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-07-19","generated_utc":"2026-07-19T06:38Z","ortszeit":"08:38","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-08-03","generated_utc":"2026-08-03T04:09Z","ortszeit":"06:09","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-08-19","generated_utc":"2026-08-19T12:05Z","ortszeit":"14:05","nach_mittag":true},{"ausgabetag":"2026-09-08","generated_utc":"2026-09-08T15:01Z","ortszeit":"17:01","nach_mittag":true},{"ausgabetag":"2026-10-01","generated_utc":"2026-10-01T16:32Z","ortszeit":"18:32","nach_mittag":true},{"ausgabetag":"2026-10-15","generated_utc":"2026-10-15T05:03Z","ortszeit":"07:03","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-10-16","generated_utc":"2026-10-16T04:53Z","ortszeit":"06:53","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-10-17","generated_utc":"2026-10-17T04:51Z","ortszeit":"06:51","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-11-01","generated_utc":"2026-11-01T06:39Z","ortszeit":"07:39","nach_mittag":false},{"ausgabetag":"2026-11-02","generated_utc":"2026-11-02T06:40Z","ortszeit":"07:40","nach_mittag":false}],"messung":"DWD-Stationsmessung via Bright Sky (data/measured.json)","vorhersage":"Open-Meteo, archiviert in data/forecasts/ (CC BY 4.0)","gitterhoehe":"data/klimatologie.json (ERA5-Gitterpunkt der Klimatologie)"},"regeln":["Je Ausgabetag wird nur ein Lauf gewertet: der mit der kleinsten generated_utc.","Ein Lauf, in dem Staedte fehlen (Feld fehlend), zaehlt nur dann als fruehester Lauf seines Ausgabetags, wenn es fuer diesen Tag keinen vollstaendigen gibt; sonst gilt der frueheste vollstaendige.","Vorlauf = Zieltag minus Ausgabetag in Kalendertagen (Europe/Berlin), 0 bis 7.","Konsens = Median der Modelle, die fuer den Tag einen Wert geliefert haben (mindestens zwei). Versatz (bias) = Konsens minus Messung: positiv heisst zu warm, negativ zu kalt. mae ist der mittlere absolute Fehler auf denselben Faellen.","Gruppe nah = Vorlauf 0 bis 1, Gruppe alle = Vorlauf 0 bis 7.","Verglichen wird eine DWD-Station mit einem Modellgitterpunkt, abgefragt fuer die festen Koordinaten der Stadt. Die Station liegt oft Kilometer entfernt (distance_km); ein fester Versatz je Stadt ist zuerst einer der Messlage, kein Urteil ueber die Modelle.","Stehen fuer eine Stadt mehrere Stationen in stationen, hat Bright Sky an manchen Tagen eine andere geliefert; welcher Tag von welcher Station stammt, haelt measured.json nicht fest.","Halbierungsprobe: Die Zieltage werden zweimal geteilt, zeitlich (erste gegen zweite Haelfte; trennt auch Hoch- und Spaetsommer) und wochenweise (gerade gegen ungerade Kalenderwochen; gleiche Jahreszeit, aber an den Wochengrenzen teilen Nachbartage ihr Wetter). Geteilt wird nach Zieltag, damit beide Haelften keine Messung gemeinsam haben. r ist die Korrelation der Versaetze beider Haelften ueber die Staedte, spearman die der Raenge. niveau_a und niveau_b sind das Mittel der Stadt-Versaetze je Haelfte: Verschiebt sich das ganze Niveau, bleibt die Reihenfolge der Staedte, der Betrag je Stadt aber nicht.","Die Mindestzahl zaehlt Paare aus Vorhersage und Messung, keine Messtage: In der Gruppe nah geht jeder gemessene Tag zweimal ein (Vorlauf 0 und 1).","Faire Rangliste je Stadt: nur Faelle mit allen elf Modellen (bis max_vorlauf). Sieger = kleinster MAE auf vier Stellen; exakter Gleichstand = kein Sieger. Liegt der Vorsprung unter 0.05 K, zaehlt der Sieg als knapp und nicht in siege. andere_sieger_naeher_an_null zaehlt die Staedte mit einem anderen Sieger als dem Gesamtsieger, deren Sieger dort betragsmaessig weniger Versatz hat als der Konsens; gesamtsieger_naeher_an_null dasselbe fuer die Staedte des Gesamtsiegers. Weil der Sieger nach dem kleinsten Fehler gewaehlt wird, hat er meist auch weniger Versatz -- ein Beleg fuer einen Ausgleich der Messlage ist das nicht. stadteigener_sieger nennt die Staedte, deren Sieger in beiden Haelften derselbe ist UND nicht der Sieger ueber alle Staedte.","Meist ist der gewertete Lauf der vom Vorabend. Die in quelle.spaete_laeufe genannten Ausgabetage hatten keinen; ihr fruehester Lauf entstand erst ab 6 Uhr Ortszeit, nach 12 Uhr kannte er bei Vorlauf 0 schon einen Teil des Tages. Die Faelle zaehlen mit; faelle_v0_aus_spaeten_laeufen sagt, wie viele es bei Vorlauf 0 sind.","Unter 30 Faellen (je Stadt, Gruppe und Haelfte) steht keine Zahl, sondern zustand waechst.","era5_gitter_hoehe_m ist die Hoehe der ERA5-Gitterzelle der Klimatologie -- nicht die Hoehe, auf die die Vorhersagemodelle rechnen, und nicht die Stationshoehe. hoehe_m der Station steht nur, wenn measured.json sie fuehrt.","luecken nennt die Kalendertage zwischen erstem und letztem Ausgabetag, an denen kein Lauf im Archiv liegt.","gegenprobe_ohne_staedte_ohne_eigene_temperatur (nur tmax): dieselbe Bilanz ohne die Staedte, deren naechste Station seit dem 2026-09-26 keinen eigenen Hoechstwert mehr liefert (Liste und Begruendung in trefferquote_tmin.json unter luecken). Ihre Hoechstwerte davor hat die alte Messregel angenommen; woher sie kamen, haelt das Archiv nicht fest. Stammten sie aus Tagen mit wenigen eigenen Stunden, laegen sie eher zu tief, und ihr Versatz stuende zu weit im Plus. heraus zeigt den Versatz dieser Staedte zusammen, gesamt, spannweite, halbierungsprobe und rangliste_fair die Bilanz ohne sie."],"mindestfaelle":30,"gruppen":[{"schluessel":"nah","vorlauf_von":0,"vorlauf_bis":1,"bezeichnung":"Vorlauf 0 bis 1"},{"schluessel":"alle","vorlauf_von":0,"vorlauf_bis":7,"bezeichnung":"Vorlauf 0 bis 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