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Ueber eine Luecke im Archiv hinweg gibt es keinen Sprung.","Der Median wird je Sprung nur ueber die Modelle gebildet, die in BEIDEN Staenden einen Wert haben (bei der Gegenbewegung: in allen drei), mindestens zwei. median_alle_k ist zum Vergleich der Sprung des Medians ueber alle liefernden Modelle -- dort springt er auch, weil MeteoFrance, CMA-GRAPES und UKMO nach Vorlauf 3, 4 und 6 wegfallen.","KNMI, DMI und MET Norway liefern bei laengerem Vorlauf meist denselben Wert (dubletten_gleich_prozent je Vorlauf) und zaehlen im Median dann dreifach. eine_stimme rechnet Sprung und Gegenbewegung noch einmal mit den dreien als einer Stimme (ihr Median). Das Beispiel muss in beiden Rechnungen ein Hin und Her sein.","Sprunggroesse und Gegenbewegung brauchen keine Messung und zaehlen auch noch nicht gemessene Zieltage; Richtung, Mittel heute/gestern und Drittel nur Faelle mit DWD-Messung.","Gegenbewegung bei Vorlauf L: die Spruenge L+2 -> L+1 und L+1 -> L desselben Orts und Zieltags; gezaehlt wird der Anteil mit entgegengesetztem Vorzeichen, nur Paare, in denen beide Spruenge ungleich null sind. Bei Vorlauf 6 entfaellt sie (Vorlauf 8 gibt es nicht). nach_grossem: dasselbe nur fuer Paare, deren erster Sprung im oberen Drittel dieses Vorlaufs lag (ab gross_ab_k).","Vergleichswerte der Gegenbewegung sind Annahmen, keine Messung: 50 % erwartet, wer jeden Lauf fuer neue, vom vorigen Sprung unabhaengige Information haelt; 66,7 % (zwei Drittel), wenn die Staende unabhaengig und gleich verteilt um die Wahrheit streuen. Beides gilt fuer echte Modelllaeufe nur ungefaehr.","Alle *_spanne95: Block-Bootstrap mit 1000 Ziehungen ganzer Zieltage (fester Startwert), Perzentile 2,5 und 97,5. Ein Urteil (naeher an 50 %, Mitteln hilft, grosse Spruenge treffen schlechter) gilt nur, wenn die Spanne den Vergleichswert nicht enthaelt. Benachbarte Tage gelten als unabhaengig; die Spannen sind deshalb eher zu schmal als zu breit.","Richtung: Anteil der Spruenge ungleich null, nach denen der Median naeher an der Messung liegt als vorher. mittlerer_fehler_k = Median(L) minus Messung, negativ = zu kalt. ohne_schlagseite: dieselbe Zaehlung je Sprungrichtung, nachdem der mittlere Fehler je Stadt herausgerechnet ist -- die Gegenprobe, ob die Bevorzugung einer Richtung nur an einer bestaendigen Schlagseite liegt.","Mittel heute/gestern = (Median(L) + Median(L+1)) / 2 auf derselben Modellmenge; gewinn_k = MAE(heute) minus MAE(Mittel), positiv heisst: das Mittel trifft besser.","Drittel: Faelle eines Vorlaufs nach |Sprung| an den Grenzen des 1/3- und 2/3-Quantils geteilt (lineare Interpolation); gleich grosse Spruenge fallen in dieselbe Gruppe. Je Gruppe der mittlere absolute Fehler des neuen Stands; gross_minus_klein_k aus den ungerundeten Gruppenmitteln.","innerhalb_des_tages weicht bewusst von der ersten Regel ab: erster gegen letzten Lauf desselben Ausgabetages, gleiche Modellmenge, erst ab Vorlauf 1, weil ein Abendlauf am Vorlauf 0 den Hoechstwert schon zum Teil kennt. differenz_k = MAE letzter minus MAE erster Lauf.","Verglichen wird eine DWD-Stationsmessung mit einem Modellgitterpunkt. Der Versatz aendert keinen Sprung, wohl aber jeden Fehler.","Unter 30 Faellen steht statt einer Zahl zustand 'waechst' (bei den Dritteln je Gruppe); 'keine_faelle' heisst, das Modell liefert so weit nicht."],"mindestfaelle":30,"grosser_sprung":"oberes Drittel der ersten Sprunggroesse je 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